25% of Russia’s imports are already under sanctions
Descriptive outlook of trade sanctions
We estimated coverage of sanctioned exports to and imports from Russia. We used the trade data of 2019 for all computations, as some countries have not reported the trade data for 2021 yet, while 2020 was a shock year (pandemic). We use the trade data (imports and exports of Russia) from World Integrated Trade Solutions and the data on the trade restrictions imposed by the partners of Ukraine from the website Global Trade Allerts.
As of 21st of July, countries from the sanction coalition have imposed major export sanctions on 25% of total Russian imports which cover $55 bn USD. Major import sanctions cover 8% of Russian exports or $33 bn, while oil embargo from the EU and Norway will add 21 p.p. or $84 bn in coverage.
The highest nominal sanctioned exports were imposed by the EU ($40 bn in value, or 42%) and the highest share of sanctioned exports were imposed by Japan (91%), UK (63%), Canada (62%). The highest nominal sanctioned imports were imposed by the EU ($15 bn, or 10%), while the oil embargo will add $83 bn (55 p.p.). The highest share of sanctioned imports were imposed by New Zealand (99%), Canada (97%) and Australia (92%).
While the sanction coalition imposed a significant economic pressure on both Russian exports and imports, there is still room for increasing the cost of unprovoked and unjustified Russian war. EU, as the main trade partner with Russia, can increase the sanction coverage the most. However, other countries from the sanction coalition could also cover a significant share of Russian trade together. For instance, non-sanctioned imports from Russia to the United Kingdom, Republic of Korea, Japan and Singapore together give more than 11% of total Russian exports.
At the same time, sanction coalition countries should stick to their commitments about cutting trade with Russia and should impose supervision on exports to/imports from Russia via other countries and, if necessary, impose secondary sanctions.
See the full text of the Descriptive outlook of trade sanctions here >>>