Vessels with false or unknown flags have virtually disappeared from Baltic Sea shipments

According to the June issue of the Russian Shadow Fleet Tracker by KSE Institute, in May crude oil was transported by 142 unique tankers, 71% of which were shadow fleet vessels; oil products were transported by 194 tankers, 42% of them shadow fleet vessels. Among shadow tankers carrying crude oil, 93% were over 15 years old, and 91% of those carrying oil products.

Crude oil was shipped mainly through Pacific Ocean ports (43%, around 1.2 mb/d) and the Baltic Sea (33%, around 0.9 mb/d). For oil products, the Black Sea remained the key route (35%, 179 kb/d), followed by Pacific Ocean ports (31%, 161 kb/d).

China and India remained the key destinations for shadow fleet crude — 30% and 21%, respectively. For oil products, China and Brazil led with 19% and 7%. The share of shipments with an unknown destination fell noticeably: to 40% for crude oil (from 46% in April) and to 37% for oil products (from 46%). Among individual buyers in March–May 2026, the largest crude purchasers were India’s IOC and RIL and China’s Shandong Yulong, with a combined 28%; for oil products, India’s RIL and the Syrian Government accounted for 7%.

Entities from China, Russia, and the UAE dominate the shadow fleet ecosystem, accounting for 65% of ship/commercial management and 63% of registered ownership. For ISM management, China, Russia, and Azerbaijan led with a combined 64%. The top three flag states for shadow tankers were Cameroon, Russia, and Sierra Leone, together accounting for 62%. The Russian flag’s share remains at 23% of the total volume of oil transported by shadow tankers in May 2026.

At least 44 shadow tankers (24% of all shadow fleet vessels) operated under coverage from three Russian insurers — AlfaStrakhovanie (18 vessels), Balance Insurance JSC (14), and Sogaz (12). Of these, 33 (75%) are subject to sanctions by at least one jurisdiction, including the EU, US, UK, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand, and 26 (59%) sail under the Russian flag.

In the Baltic Sea, crude oil shipments rose 1.9% month-on-month and 19.4% year-on-year in May, while 100% of shadow tankers carrying both crude oil and oil products were over 15 years old. Vessels with false or unknown flags have virtually disappeared from Baltic Sea shipments. The Russian flag’s share there fell from 15% in April to 11% in May. Among identified destinations, India led for crude (17%) and Brazil for oil products (26%).