Russia Pays China a Growing Premium for War-Critical Technology

KSE Institute has published the Q2 2026 edition of its Russian CHP Imports Tracker, a quarterly analytical product that assesses Russia’s ability to import critically important goods falling under the sanctions coalition’s export controls regime. The first edition focused on trade volumes. This one expands the analysis to prices – how much Russia pays for CHP goods, and what price premium it pays relative to other importers and to the global market price.

The core finding is that Russia pays an increasing premium to China for CHP goods, and that this premium rose in tandem with the share of CHP items that Russia sources from China, reaching approximately 300% in 2025. The premium Russia pays across all of its suppliers combined – including non-Chinese ones – is considerably lower, staying below 50% for most of the war, and has declined in 2025. 

The report also examines whether coalition countries diverted CHP exports previously destined for Russia through third countries in the Eurasian customs union (EAEU). It finds little evidence of diversion at scale but notes that the diversion that does occur is often routed through Kazakhstan. Hong Kong, meanwhile, accounts for a rising share of Russia’s imports of processors and integrated circuits – a possible indicator of how coalition-made products are still reaching Russia.Future editions of the Russian CHP Imports Tracker will incorporate new case studies and data, and take a closer look at the premium Russia pays its non-Chinese suppliers.

The Common High Priority (CHP) items list covers 50 categories of war-critical goods, from microelectronics to CNC machine tools. Since the imposition of export controls in 2022, Russia’s imports have fallen by more than half in value terms, and most of what remains flows through China, which accounts for approximately 75% of reported CHP exports to Russia.