Despite Multi-Year Low Export Volumes Higher Global Prices Lifted Russia’s Oil Export Revenues by 25%

In September 2026, Russia’s crude oil and oil product export revenues rose by 25%, or $3.6 billion, to $17.7 billion, according to the October edition of the Russian Oil Tracker by KSE Institute. The increase was driven by a sharp rise in global oil prices amid the war in the Middle East. Total export volumes remained broadly stable at 6.5 million barrels per day (mb/d), but around 1 mb/d below September 2025. Сrude oil revenues gained $3.2 billion of the monthly increase, while oil products increased by only  $0.4 billion.

Russian seaborne crude oil and oil product exports fell by 147 kb/d, or 2.9% month-on-month and 16.1% year-on-year, to 4.9 mb/d. Crude shipments declined by 1.8% to 3.8 mb/d, while oil product exports fell by 7% to 1.05 mb/d, around 53% below the 2025 average. Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries and oil infrastructure remain one source of pressure on the Russian oil industry. The increase of crude shipments could not offset the collapse of oil product exports. Even so, higher global prices have lifted Russia’s oil export revenues despite stable oil exports.

The sharpest declines were recorded at Black Sea ports. Crude exports fell by 14.5% month-on-month and 60.1% year-on-year, while oil product shipments declined by 29.6% and 79%, respectively. Crude exports from Baltic ports were down 3.5% month-on-month but remained 6.5% higher year-on-year. Baltic oil product shipments rose by 6.4% month-on-month but fell by 35.6% year-on-year. Pacific crude shipments fell by 4.8% month-on-month, whereas Arctic crude shipments increased by 33.8%.

Russia’s reliance on Western maritime services declined to 37%. Tankers with IG P&I insurance carried 25% of seaborne crude oil and 78% of oil products. None of the crude exported through Black Sea ports was carried by IG P&I-insured tankers, compared with 40% in August. KSE Institute estimates that 141 loaded shadow fleet tankers departed Russian ports or took part in ship-to-ship transfers in September, with 94% of these vessels older than 15 years.

As of 14 October, the United States, United Kingdom, EU, Canada, Australia and New Zealand had collectively sanctioned 687 unique oil tankers. On 2 and 8 October, the UK designated a further 13 Russia-linked vessels, all of which were already subject to EU sanctions. Sanctioned vessels continue to participate in Russian oil trade: the share of tanker-days involving Russian cargoes for US-designated vessels reached 29% in September.

The combined share of US-designated Rosneft, Lukoil, Gazpromneft and Surgutneftegaz in seaborne crude exports rose from 22% in August to 26% in September, while their share of oil product exports fell to 8%. UAE-based Redwood Global Supply and Solid Energy together accounted for 34% of Russian seaborne oil product exports. Meanwhile, the share of Russian ship managers in shadow fleet shipments increased from 12% in January to 27% in September. A further 34 Russian ship and commercial managers began operating in 2026.

India and China remained the principal buyers of Russian crude, though both reduced purchases in September. India cut imports for the second consecutive month to 1.9 mb/d, still 9% above its 2025 average. Imports from Persian Gulf countries reached 2.1 mb/d, surpassing Russian supplies for the first time since March. China reduced its seaborne imports of Russian crude by 10% month-on-month to 1.5 mb/d, still 28% above its 2025 average. Turkey reduced Russian crude imports to 84 kb/d, equivalent to 15% of its total crude imports, while Russian oil product imports fell to the lowest level recorded, at 113 kb/d.

Russian oil prices rose sharply alongside global benchmarks. Urals loaded at Primorsk increased by around $28 per barrel to $94, while Urals at Novorossiysk rose by $24 to $90, well above the EU’s revised price cap. Discounts on Urals relative to Brent narrowed by $5 per barrel at Primorsk and $1 at Novorossiysk. ESPO at Kozmino increased by around $20 to $94 per barrel. Russian diesel rose by $26 to $189 per barrel, gasoil by $27 to $166 and petrol by $18 to $141.

KSE Institute revised its outlook for Russian oil export revenues in light of the war in the Middle East. Under the base case, which assumes existing sanctions remain in place and the full-scale US-Iran conflict ends by November, revenues could rise from $158 billion in 2025 to $200 billion in 2026 before falling to $159 billion in 2027. Under stronger sanctions pressure, revenues could reach $193 billion in 2026 and $126 billion in 2027. With weak sanctions enforcement, they could reach $212 billion and $198 billion, respectively. For 2028, the three scenarios project $138 billion, $106 billion and $178 billion. KSE Institute estimates Russia’s cumulative oil export losses from March 2022 to September 2026 at $213 billion.