Official Trade Data May Understate Russia’s Imports of War-Critical Goods

KSE Institute has published the Q3 2026 edition of its quarterly Russian CHP Imports Tracker, which assesses Russia’s ability to import critical goods covered by the sanctions coalition’s export restrictions. The third edition expands the analysis by comparing publicly reported export statistics with transaction-level import data, revealing where official trade data may not fully capture Russia’s import flows. 

The most pronounced discrepancy relative to reported data is found in Hong Kong. Its reported exports of common high-priority (CHP) goods to Russia more than halved after the full-scale invasion, while extrapolated flows may have roughly doubled. For CHP Tiers 1, 2 and 3.A – which include integrated circuits, wireless communications components and discrete electronic components – transaction-level data suggest flows were 3–4 times higher than reported exports. 

The expanded analysis also changes the picture of Russia’s overall CHP imports. Combining reported trade statistics with transaction-level data suggests that imports may have matched or exceeded pre-war levels in 2023 before declining in 2024. China remains the dominant supplier even after adjusting for possible underreporting, accounting for around 50–70% of Russia’s CHP imports depending on the month, rather than more than 75% in reported trade data. 

The analysis puts the potential gap between reported and extrapolated exports at roughly $5–6 billion for Hong Kong and $6–7 billion for China, compared with less than $1 billion for the sanctions coalition. In China’s case, the discrepancy is concentrated almost entirely in Tier 1 microelectronics. Tier 1 is also the only CHP category where extrapolated exports were consistently above pre-invasion levels. By contrast, direct CHP exports from sanctions-coalition countries have fallen sharply since 2022, and the analysis finds little evidence of meaningful underreporting by coalition members. 

Future editions of the Russian CHP Imports Tracker will expand the analysis of potentially underreported exports and return to the price-premium estimates introduced in Q2.