Refinery strikes drove oil product exports to a record low, while the diesel and gasoil export ban could put up to 36% of total oil product export volumes at risk

In June 2026, Russian seaborne oil exports increased by 4.7% month on month and 8.7% year-over-year, according to the July edition of the KSE Institute’s Russian Oil Tracker. Seaborne crude oil shipments rose by 13.3% to approximately 4.4 million barrels per day. Oil product exports, by contrast, fell by 13.1% to around 1.6 million barrels per day—the lowest level on record. Total crude oil and oil product exports, including pipeline shipments, increased to 7.7 million barrels per day. At the same time, Russia’s oil export revenues fell by $5 billion to $15.8 billion.

Amid a domestic fuel crisis, Russia banned diesel and gasoil exports in July 2026, potentially putting up to 36% of its total oil product export volumes at risk. Between January 2025 and June 2026, Russia exported these products to 52 countries, with the eight largest buyers accounting for 80% of total exports. Russia had previously exported a steady 900,000–1 million barrels of diesel and gasoil per day, whereas in June, following strikes on refineries, exports fell to approximately 580,000 barrels per day. The ban is expected to increase fuel supply on the domestic market and curb price growth. At the same time, it will reduce foreign-exchange and fiscal revenues from sales of some of the highest-value refined products.

Turkey was the market most dependent on Russian diesel and gasoil, with Russia accounting for 87% of its imports of these products. Russia’s share stood at 76% in Tunisia, 63% in Brazil, 61% in Ghana and 54% in Senegal. It accounted for 32% of Morocco’s imports and 24% of Egypt’s.

The decline in oil product exports was linked to Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries. Refinery runs fell to 3.8 million barrels per day, 1.6 million barrels per day lower year-over-year. As a result, Russia reduced oil product exports but increased crude oil shipments, as more crude could not be processed domestically. At the same time, reliance on Western maritime services rose to 45%. Tankers with IG P&I insurance coverage carried 35% of Russian crude oil and 73% of its oil products.

Prices for Russian crude oil and most oil products fell sharply in June. Average Urals FOB prices declined by around $24 to $61 per barrel, but remained above the revised EU price cap. ESPO FOB Kozmino fell by approximately $22 to $73 per barrel. Diesel averaged around $108 per barrel and gasoil around $103 per barrel. Fuel oil fell to $37 per barrel, while naphtha declined to $45 per barrel.

The shadow fleet remains a key instrument of Russian oil exports. In June, around 180 loaded shadow fleet tankers left Russian ports or were involved in ship-to-ship transfers. Approximately 94% of these vessels were more than 15 years old. As of July 27, 2026, the United States, the United Kingdom, the EU, Canada, Australia and New Zealand had collectively designated 681 unique oil tankers. Under its 21st sanctions package, the EU added another 30 oil tankers that had transported Russian crude oil or oil products. Only two of them had already been designated by other jurisdictions. Despite the expansion of sanctions, some of these tankers continue to participate in Russian oil exports.

India and China remained the leading buyers of Russian oil. In June, India increased imports of Russian crude oil by 38% to 2.6 million barrels per day, while China raised imports by 13% to 1.2 million barrels per day. Turkey reduced its imports of Russian crude oil to 131,000 barrels per day. At the same time, it imported around 398,000 barrels per day of Russian oil products, which accounted for 81% of its seaborne oil product imports.

The KSE Institute revised its forecast for Russian oil export revenues following the breakdown of the U.S.-Iran truce. Under the base case, revenues could rise from $158 billion in 2025 to $191 billion in 2026 before declining to $163 billion in 2027. Under stronger sanctions pressure, revenues could amount to $173 billion in 2026 and $117 billion in 2027. Under weak enforcement, they could reach $202 billion and $192 billion, respectively. Russia’s cumulative oil export revenue losses from March 2022 through June 2026 are estimated at $199.6 billion. Losses in June amounted to $4.8 billion.