Strikes on oil infrastructure and diesel export ban reduced crude and oil products shipments through the Black Sea by 26% and 47% respectively

In July 2026, Russian seaborne exports of crude oil and oil products fell by 10.7% compared with June and by 6.4% year-on-year, according to the August edition of the KSE Institute’s Russian Oil Tracker. Crude oil exports declined by 5% to around 4.2 mb/d but remained close to record-high levels for the second consecutive month.

Total oil products exports fell by 31.6% to 1.36 mb/d, the lowest level on record. Total crude oil and oil products exports, including pipeline and rail shipments, declined to 6.97 mb/d. At the same time, Russia’s oil export revenues fell by $2 billion to $13.8 billion.

Amid Ukrainian strikes on refining capacities and oil infrastructure in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov, Russia introduced a diesel export ban on July 8, 2026, and sharply reduced oil products shipments through Black Sea ports. Oil products exports through Black Sea ports fell by 47% compared with June and by 63% year-on-year. Crude oil shipments through the Black Sea declined by 26% month-on-month but remained 20% higher than a year earlier. The share of Black Sea ports in Russia’s total crude oil exports fell to 17%, while their share in oil products exports declined to 30%.

The largest declines in oil products exports were recorded at Novorossiysk, Taman, and Tuapse. Shipments from Novorossiysk fell by 39% compared with June, while exports from Taman dropped by 72%. Tuapse has recorded no shipments since June.

The decline in oil products exports was driven by Ukrainian strikes on Russian refining and port infrastructure, which prompted Russia to impose restrictions on motor fuel exports. As a result, Russia maintained high crude oil export volumes, while oil products shipments fell to their lowest level on record. At the same time, Russia’s reliance on Western maritime services declined to 41%. Tankers insured by IG P&I clubs carried 32% of crude oil and 77% of oil products. In the Black Sea, they carried 64% of crude oil and 81% of oil products.

Prices for Russian crude oil and most oil products declined in July. The average Urals price at loading ports fell by around $4 to $57/bbl, but remained well above the revised EU price cap. ESPO crude fell by around $6 to $67/bbl. Diesel traded at around $100/bbl and gasoil at $95/bbl. Fuel oil fell to $32/bbl and naphtha to $43/bbl.

The shadow fleet remains an important tool for Russian oil exports. In July, according to KSE Institute estimates, 154 loaded shadow fleet tankers departed Russian ports or received cargo through ship-to-ship transfers. Of these vessels, 93% were more than 15 years old. As of August 13, 2026, the US, UK, EU, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand had collectively sanctioned 687 unique oil tankers. On August 6, the UK added another five tankers that had not previously been sanctioned by the US, EU, Canada, Australia, or New Zealand. Despite the expansion of sanctions, some sanctioned vessels continue to participate in Russian oil exports.

India and China remained the main buyers of Russian crude oil. In July, India imported around 2.6 mb/d of Russian crude oil for the second consecutive month, accounting for 54% of its total crude oil imports. China increased its purchases of Russian crude oil by 24% to 1.5 mb/d. Turkey reduced imports of Russian crude oil to 138 kb/d. At the same time, it imported around 200 kb/d of Russian oil products, half the level recorded a month earlier.

KSE Institute revised its outlook for Russian oil export revenues following the collapse of the US-Iran ceasefire. Under the base case, revenues could rise from $158 billion in 2025 to $182 billion in 2026 before declining to $156 billion in 2027. Under stronger sanctions pressure, revenues could amount to $176 billion in 2026 and $118 billion in 2027. Under weak enforcement of restrictions, they could reach $196 billion and $186 billion, respectively. The cumulative losses of Russian oil exports from March 2022 to July 2026 are estimated at $205 billion. In July alone, they amounted to $5.1 billion.